|
Serbian Elections Bring Early
Independence For Kosovo
The Balkans remain a traditional regional political hot-spot
by Tamas S. Kiss
 The
majority of EU member states were dancing-on-the-edge recently
in their delicate diplomatic balancing act to support
Serbia's
plans to join the EU alongside an expected declaration of independence
from the breakaway province of Kosovo in the near future.
At
the same time, the EU's diplomacy raced against the clock to
save face with Serbian hard-liners and Russian leaders,
who publicly opposed Kosovo's independence. Over the past
several
months, European diplomats handed each other the door-handles
in attempts to facilitate a coordinated declaration of independence,
one which is strongly backed by the US, much to Russia's
chagrin. The EU's Slovenian presidency has requested EU foreign
ministers
to sign a so-called 'Stabilization and Association Agreement'
with Serbia which is seen as the first official step to European
Union membership. Its goal is to appease Serbia's impending
loss
of Kosovo. The EU has approved plans to dispatch 1,800 security
officers to help this transition in Kosovo amid fears that
a Nikolic victory could lead to the breakaway province declaring
independence earlier than expected. Meanwhile, the Russian
Government
has warned both the EU and UN that such a police force presence
requires UN approval. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon declined
to comment on EU deployment plans or whether an earlier UN
Security Council resolution would be enough to provide legal
ground for
such a mission.
In 2007, Russia used a veto threat to derail a
UN proposal for the internationally supervised independence of
Kosovo.
Currently,
the United Nations has 192 member states, which are inhabited
by approximately 3,000 ethnic groups.
Decisive Hungarian
votes
 In the first round of presidential elections pro-Russian
ultra-nationalist candidate, Tomislav Nikolic, took the
lead. It was almost certain
that the ill-treated Hungarian minority in Serbia would step
back in favor of putting pro-EU presidential candidate Boris
Tadic into the presidential seat. Observers expressed that
the first round of elections (on Jan 20) was less concentrated
on the fate of Kosovo and more on the flexing of muscles
by the various political parties. About 230,000 Hungarians
live
in Serbia, but have never received substantial support from
the Hungarian Government in their struggle to ensure their
own cultural, political, religious and language rights. In
the first round, Nikolic's Serbian Radical Party (SRS) took
the lead with 39.6% of votes against Tadic's Democratic Party
(DS) that managed 35.4%. No party was able to secure an absolute
majority and as a result, a decisive second-round run-off
was fixed for Feb 3. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP, which
won
5.6% of the votes), and the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians
(who secured 2.2%), strongly sympathize with Tadic's party.
Unless Nikolic is able to convince the voters otherwise,
Tadic could become the new President. Just days before the
second
round, Nikolic was invited to Moscow by Sergei Mironov, Chairman
of the Council of Federation of the Federal Assembly of the
Russian Federation who is considered to be a close ally of
Russia's President, Vladimir Putin. Nikolic's two-day visit
was dubbed "unofficial," but while the Serbian presidential
post comes with limited powers, it does carry symbolic significance.
Ultimately, the pro-western incumbent won the election on Feb
4 in a close contest (50.5% against Nikolic’s 47.9%). On Jan
24, Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaqi said a date for the
declaration of independence would be announced "very soon." United
Nations peacekeepers have watched over the Serbian province
of Kosovo since 1999, when NATO bombers from Belgrade's forces
waged a crackdown on independence-seeking ethnic Albanians
who make up 90% of the population in Kosovo. UN mediators had
failed to find a solution for Kosovo because the Serbian leadership
wanted Kosovars to have autonomy and not independence. US diplomat
and journalist Richard Holbrooke believes the biggest challenge
will be to maintain the diplomatic processes and stabilize
the traditionally gun-frenzied Balkans. "The time has
come to finally decide the status of Kosovo. The US and Europe
have not been able to influence Putin or decrease tension in
the region. I think this is their biggest failure," he
told journalists during his recent visit to Budapest. Holbrooke
achieved international fame after he brokered a peace agreement
between the warring factions in Bosnia, paving the way for
the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords.
 Kosovo has own history
Between 1999-2001, Holbrooke served as US Ambassador to the
United Nations and has often been referred to as an "effective,
hard-nosed negotiator." He agreed with the EU foreign
minister's idea to send 1,800 security officers in quick-step
to Kosovo. "That's a good step. many such steps are needed," he
said. "The US, EU and NATO must convey a clear message
to Russia and Serbia, that it will not tolerate any incitement
of violence. This is very, very important." Holbrooke
explained that the US involvement in the Balkan War was simply
necessary because "the Europeans quite frankly, couldn't
deal with it on their own." He explained that the delay
was unwarranted and nothing had been done by the European 'powers'
until about 1994. By the summer of 1995, the US intervened
and after a fortnight of constant bombardments, the Yugoslavian
warlords (Slobodan Milosevich, FranjoTudjman, Alija Izetbegovic)
sat down with the US leadership in Dayton. They did not leave
the negotiating table until the Bosnian war was declared over
and the peace accord took its place. Four years later, Milosevich
attacked the Kosovo Albanians without warning, compelling the
US-led NATO forces to intervene once again. The Serbs pulled
out of Kosovo but the west continued to be haunted by its 'Balkan
Blunder' because Bosnia immediately won independence while
Kosovo did not. Holbrooke insisted, "Yugoslavia has disintegrated
into new independent states like Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro,
Croatia and Bosnia.” “You can't have a separate country for
every ethnic group in the world. But Kosovo (having been a
federal republic of the former Yugoslavia) has a unique situation
as it has its own history, so why shouldn't it be independent?"
|
